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ROMANIA THINK TANK
Survey suggests at least 60 per cent of Romanians are realistic or pessimistic about EU entry

by Mark Percival
May 2004

In a survey commissioned for Romania Think Tank (RTT) the Bucharest research agency D and D Research discovered that at least 60 per cent of Romanians polled had realistic or pessimistic views on what EU entry will mean for the country's citizens. Only 20 per cent can be said to view the EU as a panacea to all Romania's problems, demonstrating the traditional tendency to expect disinterested outside intervention. The remaining 20 per cent showed some overly optimistic views on EU entry, but these were focused towards expectations of foreign investment and work opportunities in other EU member states, rather than on the idea that the EU administration itself would intervene to a significant degree in support of Romanian citizens.

While the survey reveals many misconceptions about the EU and the likely position of Romania within it, it also indicates a certain maturity in Romanian public opinion since the outside world is generally viewed in a more realistic light than might have been the case in the early 1990s or in the 1950s, when it was widely expected that ìthe Americansî would invade Romania to overthrow the communist system. The survey took place between 5 January and 2 February 2004 in Bucharest, and 170 citizens from a broad range of ages, social groups and education levels were interviewed. Five clear opinion groups were discerned, of approximately equal size, each representing around 20 per cent of the total: Dark Realist, Moderate Pessimist, Political Pessimist, Unbalanced Optimist and Compulsive Dreamer.

The Dark Realist is the category most in tune with reality, and generally the best educated. This group is well informed about EU entry conditions, understanding that one of the most important integration criteria will be the ending of state subsidies to loss making industries, leading, for instance, to increases in utility prices, as well as new regulations to impose EU norms, particularly in agriculture. They understand that after formal admittance, Romanians are still likely to be second class citizens of the EU in many respects, without enjoying the full freedoms of those from established member states. They realise that many of the country's long standing problems will not disappear overnight, such as corruption (particularly in the judicial system), political primitivism, poor standards of customer service, dilapidated infrastructure or the low quality of established industries, especially in the state sector.

However, this group is positive in seeing EU integration as an opportunity for individuals to strive more for their own good without hurting others, viewing economics very much in a Western European manner. They expect that gradually, Romanians will become less concerned with the traditional preoccupation of looking enviously at the neighbour's goat which produces more milk, instead realising that it is better to get on with finding ways to make their own goat do the same. Equally, they perceive a likely shift away from the jungle capitalism afflicting much of present Romanian life, in which the wealthy frequently show very little respect for others, to a more mature society giving proper attention to the underprivileged. Consequently this group can also be described as cautious optimists, because they understand that EU entry will not solve Romania's problems immediately, but that in the long term it will inevitably lead to positive trends.

The Moderate Pessimist shares many of the expectations of the Dark Realist, but with a more negative view and showing less interest or knowledge about the subject. This group also believes that EU integration will lead to a greater individualism but does not agree that those who achieve material success will start to behave more responsibly towards the less fortunate. On the contrary, they think present tendencies towards savage capitalism and a lack of concern for others will increase and be legitimised by EU entry. This group tends to ìenvy the neighbour's goat.î They understand clearly that Romanians will be second class citizens within the EU for quite a long time to come, and are particularly realistic that opportunities for work in EU member states will not be significantly greater than they are now. They expect prices to rise but do not foresee real improvement on the major problems afflicting Romanian society such as corruption or maladministration. Moderate pessimists nevertheless have some vague expectations of change, but without a great deal of concrete knowledge to back up their theories. For instance, many in this group think that tourism will increase, that Romania's image will improve and that there will be greater discipline as well as increased foreign investment leading to higher salaries. Yet overall they perceive EU integration as a largely negative phenomenon, albeit inevitable since any alternatives would be worse.

Closely linked to this sentiment of EU integration as a least worst scenario are the third group, the Political Pessimists. These are overly concerned with Romania's history as a victim of Great Power rivalry, seeing modern international relations very much in the traditional terms of the first half of the twentieth century, when strong nation states struggled for influence in a world dominated by territorial disputes, economic nationalism, protectionism and ethnic conflict. This group is dominated by a ìsmall countryî complex, reflected, for example, in complaints that sports referees discriminate against Romania. This group sees EU integration as necessary to secure the protection of France and Germany especially against Romania's traditional enemies, Russia and Ukraine. However, they are convinced that Romanian citizens can never be equal to those of established EU member states and will always face discrimination in the workplace. Political Pessimists are particularly negative about the economic aspects of integration, believing that Romanian qualifications will continue to be viewed as inferior, so making any improvement in employment opportunities after EU entry minimal or non-existent. Unlike others, this group does not expect a major inflow of foreign investment and expect Romania's systemic problems like corruption and poor public services to stay the same. The sole advantage is seen as securing Romania's political status as a protégé of Western European countries.

In marked contrast are the Unbalanced Optimists, whose main interest in EU integration is their expectation that it will lead to dramatically improved economic opportunities in the immediate term. They are quite interested in the subject but are not very well informed. For instance, this group has a particularly strong focus towards supposed major improvements in employment opportunities through elimination of visa requirements. Yet they seem not to realise that Romania will pass through a ìtransition periodî of several years before its citizens will gain the full benefit of EU free movement of workers legislation, nor that visas for Schengen countries have in fact already been abolished but that as a quid pro quo the Romanian state has imposed draconian regulations governing the departure of its own citizens into the EU, which are likely to remain in place for some time to come. (Large numbers of Romanians are now turned back at the Hungarian frontier by their own border police for not being in possession of the correct departure documents, in scenes ironically reminiscent of those under Ceausescu.)

The Unbalanced Optimists also expect a flood of foreign investment to enter the country simply as a result of EU membership, failing to recognise that an attractive label in itself will make little difference until the root causes of underinvestment are tackled, such as corruption, red tape and an unfavourable taxation regime. Similarly, this group believes that many of the problems in Romanian society such as poor quality services, meagre social security provision and general lack of discipline will all spontaneously improve when the country joins. The one area where this group is more realistic is that it does not expect major financial aid to come from the EU, but rather sees improvement coming naturally through market forces.

Even more optimistic about EU integration are those in the last category, the Compulsive Dreamers. This group is fascinated by the idea of freedom to travel, without necessarily associating it with work opportunities. They simply believe that EU integration is a process designed to make life better for Romanians, with no negative effects. They think that it will lead to immediate improvement in living standards, as well as in the quality of government. Yet they do not expect any reductions in state subsidies, price increases or new quality regulations, nor do they see any likely diminution of sovereignty, believing that the government in Bucharest will not be answerable to any higher authority. This idea of benign and disinterested intervention from the outside world, rapidly transforming Romania into a Western country without real effort from inside was common in the period immediately after 1989, but for the most part rapidly gave way to cynicism, disillusionment, pessimism and even nostalgia for the former regime once the scale of the task to be performed by Romanians themselves became apparent. It is striking that such naïve optimism, reminiscent of the atmosphere of 1990, should still exist after fourteen years of disappointment.

In spite of the misguided enthusiasm of this last group, the survey reveals overall that a majority of Romanians understand that EU integration will not provide a ìquick fixî solution to the country's problems. Much of the negative sentiment results from profound distrust of almost all Romanian politicians, widely seen to be pursuing EU membership to secure a badge of legitimacy for themselves rather than to benefit the country. Many Romanians see government ministers trumpeting EU integration and their own supposed achievements in promoting it, without noticing any real improvement on fundamental problems such as corruption and lack of accountability of public officials. Consequently, many see EU integration as something which does not concern them, expecting few benefits as long as the current political class remains in power. This disengagement from the political process was reflected in the extremely low turnout in last October's referendum on the new constitution, even though the document creates the legal basis for EU entry. Little more than half the electorate bothered to vote, even according to official figures, themselves inflated by widespread fraud, as the government resorted to numerous illegalities to secure the required 50 per cent.

Nevertheless in spite of the cynical way in which the present governing class is manipulating the drive towards EU membership to suit its own political purposes, joining the bloc is bound to create opportunities, as the Dark Realists understand. What is needed for a successful integration is greater awareness of the real benefits, as opposed to baseless fantasies or irrational fears, among other groups identified in the survey. A well informed public can then pressurise the Romanian government to enact effective reform, for a genuine rather than cosmetic EU accession.

More about Romania Think Tank can be found by visiting its website, (www.rtt.ro). This article is based on a survey by D and D Research (www.ddresearch.ro ) for Romania Think Tank.